The Chinese lunar calendar marks 2026 as the Year of the Fire Horse, a cycle historically associated with revolutionary transformation and the disruption of established orders. It was, perhaps, a fitting backdrop for the gathering that took place on March 4th, when senior policymakers, business leaders, and thinkers convened at the European Parliament to address the most pressing question facing our continent: how to shape Europe’s future.
This is a year to ignite "fire in the belly", as Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Systems Transformation Hub co-founder, noted in her opening. The events of the past week, marked by shifting geopolitical tides and the relentless drumbeat of war news, have made one thing clear: the urgency for the European Union to move from a state of constant adaptation to active creation has never been higher.
Europe is no longer navigating a mere rough patch; it is operating in a structurally different environment. Sirpa Pietikäinen, Member of the European Parliament (MEP), set a stark framing, warning that with the planet hurtling toward three degrees of warming, the "luxury of time" for gradualism has vanished. A three-degree shift would not only trigger an unliveable climate but a 12 percent hit to European GDP, risking total societal collapse. This is not a time for "popping champagne," but for drastic, systemic action to redefine our societal systems before they fail under the pressure of planetary boundaries.
Resistance in this context is not about obstruction, but the active protection of Europe’s core foundations and a courageous refusal to double down on old, failed models. Janez Potočnik, Systems Transformation Hub co-founder, observed that Europe’s current answer—more competition and more markets—leaves the continent structurally exposed because it lacks the energy and material reserves and dominant tech platforms of its rivals. Growth is being used to compensate for vulnerability rather than addressing the vulnerability itself.
This old model is also failing the social contract. Olivier De Schutter, UN Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights, argued that the usual recipe of growth and redistribution has failed to prevent poverty or burnout, with one in ten EU workers now in precarious mini-jobs. This economic insecurity fuels the far-right populist backlash, as voters fear falling behind in an increasingly productivity-obsessed "burnout economy".
Courageous leadership now requires what Maja Göpel, Professor at Leuphana University Lüneburg and Founder Mission Wertvoll calls "daring to see" through the "epistemic warfare" that manipulates scientific and nature data. Protecting the rule of law is a proactive shield for democracy, and as Yvon Slingenberg, Director DG Climate at the European Commission, emphasized, it requires the courage to stand up against political posturing and short-termism.
If resistance defines what Europe must protect, the reboot defines what it must build—an architectural shift far broader than any single policy framework. Janez Potočnik, suggests that we view this challenge through the lens of a Rubik’s Cube. In this analogy, the sides of the cube represent Europe’s core priorities: security, resilience, and prosperity. Just as solving the cube requires understanding the complex interactions between every piece, effective policy requires recognizing that these sides cannot be 'solved' in isolation, as was described in our report on recommendations for the incoming Commission. The foundational “unlock” for the entire system, Potočnik argues, lies in our relationship with natural resources, the very base of our well-being economy and geopolitical strategy, and that we need “science-based material targets”.
This process begins by setting a new strategic North Star for the continent through the creation of a "One Market". Enrico Letta, Former Prime Minister of Italy, argues that we must move beyond the fatigue of the traditional single market to enter a third phase anchored by a "Fifth Freedom". By enabling the free movement of innovation, research, and skills, this fifth freedom acts as a strategic weaponization of knowledge, allowing Europe to overcome fragmentation and react to global pressures with unity.
This structural reboot is not merely a task for institutions but requires a fundamental shift in the role of the private sector. André Hoffmann, Co-chair of the World Economic Forum and Vice Chairman of Roche Holding, emphasizes that business must move from the short-term profit maximization of the "Me" to the collective interest of the "We," recognizing that a stronger Europe inherently means a stronger economy. This shift is operationalized through a new compass centred on the interdependency of four capitals—Natural, Social, Human, and Financial. By valuing nature as a life-support system rather than a commodity, and social capital as the contract that binds us, Europe can ensure the economy serves the people rather than the other way around.
This high-level vision finds its acupuncture points through a place-based approach that makes systemic change legible. Kirsten Dunlop, Systems Transformation Hub co-founder, identifies cities and regions as the critical "lead markets" where supply and demand can be combined at scale to achieve decarbonization and resilience. By identifying these specific pressure points, Europe can unblock the pipes of governance, bypassing institutional silos to foster a new "politics of scale". This regional focus is essential for solving the "land crunch" described by Eva Gladek, Systems Transformation Hub co-founder, who highlights the need to coordinate competing demands for food, energy, and housing that currently fall through the cracks of siloed policy.
Ultimately, the reboot is about moving from a shared vision to applied pilots on the ground that utilize all four capitals to build "islands of coherence". These regional, resilient bio-economies represent a new "European stack" where the local and the systemic reinforce each other, providing the consistent directional signal required to navigate this revolutionary year.
The path forward demands "Radical Collaboration". As Yvon Slingenberg and Kirsten Dunlop noted, this requires bringing industry and policymakers into a shared "Situation Room" to test policy pathways and build both political will before they become political risks. Lena Schilling, Member of the European Parliament, reminded us that intergenerational fairness is the ultimate test of our system’s ability to govern beyond the next electoral cycle.
Sandrine Dixson-Declève concluded with a reminder that we do not need "fluffy" optimism, but "hope with grit"—a hope embodied in steadfast courage, ready to pick itself off the ground and come up fighting. Such a spirit of hope is contagious. Together we can co design the tools for change. That’s why the Hub invites you to join our Thematic Roundtables and Capacity-Building Programmes to develop the systemic literacy and pathways required for this revolutionary year.
As Sandrine says “Complacency is no longer an option. It is time to stand with courage and get to work”.
While we may not have all the answers today, The Systems Transformation Hub is proud to offer a rigorous, trusted space in which wicked problems get addressed, the right questions get asked, and in which the distance between diagnosis and direction begins to close incrementally.
In the months ahead, we are engaging in three ways to shape Europe’s future:
Thematic Roundtables bringing together senior policymakers, scientists and practitioners for deep-dive work on the structural questions Europe cannot afford to leave to institutional silos: the 5th Freedom, natural resource management, European sovereignty, governance and rule of law in an age of AI and misinformation, a coherent European land-use strategy, and cities as lead markets for clean industries. These are designed to surface the systemic patterns that are difficult to see from within any single institution, sectoral blockage and to test policy solutions before they become political risks.
A Capacity-Building Programme for senior policymakers who want to develop the literacy, tools, not just the language, to navigate systemic shocks. Rigorous but genuinely safe: a space to step beyond institutional comfort zones, challenge entrenched assumptions, and build the collective confidence to act on what the evidence demands.
Strategic Partnership for organisations working at the intersection of science, policy and systems change. If your work is oriented toward the same structural challenges, we would welcome a conversation about where our efforts might reinforce one another.
If you are interested in any of the above, please fill in this form, and we will keep you posted on our upcoming work.
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